01/ 11/ 2018

Market Anticipates for BOE & Brexit today with NFP on back burner for Friday

US dollar strengthened against most major rivals yesterday, ending the day with an upbeat tone across the board, stabilizing in the US afternoon around 1.1320, as the common currency remained out of market favor. The GBP/USD pair jumped to 1.2830 mid-US afternoon, its highest in two days, following comments from UK's Brexit Secretary Raab, who stated " I would be happy to give evidence to the Committee when a deal is finalized and currently expect 21 November to be suitable," in a letter to Commons. Raab has been requested to appear before the parliament's Brexit committee that day. Shortly after, a spokesman from PM May said that the government wants to reach a Brexit deal as soon as possible and that they are working to achieve that, giving no further explanations.

BoE rate decision will be the main focus for today. UK will also release PMI manufacturing. Swiss will release SECO consumer confidence, CPI and PMI manufacturing in European session too. Later in the day, US data will take center stage with ISM manufacturing, construction spending, non-farm productivity and jobless claims featured.

31/ 10/ 2018

Euro Continues to Struggle as US Dollar Breaks Out Upside

The common currency remained under pressure amid poor local data and persistent political concerns. During London trading hours, later extending the slump to 1.1339. EU Q3 GDP was a big disappointment. The EU Economic Sentiment Indicator posted a larger-than-expected decline in October. Italian Deputy PM Salvini stated that the GDP slowdown is another reason to press ahead with the budget expansion. Meanwhile, the Pound remains the weakest currency across the board, briefly piercing the 1.2700 level in the US afternoon to post its second worst yearly close. Absence of progress in Brexit negotiations all combined to weigh Sterling lower.

Looking ahead, economic data due out of the Eurozone focus being on GDP and inflation figures through the day. For the Pound, it’s another quiet day on the data front, leaving the Pound to struggle as the markets consider what lies ahead for the British economy in a post Brexit world, with the talk of a Norway trade agreement meeting resistance in the early part of the week and S&P issuing the prospects of a ratings downgrade in the event of a ‘no deal.’ Across the Pond, stats are on the lighter side though likely to pack a punch, with October’s ADP nonfarm employment change, 3rd quarter employment cost numbers and October’s Chicago PMI scheduled for release.

30/ 10/ 2018

Economic Data and Geo-Politics Put the EUR in the Spotlight

The market traded in quite a dull fashion yesterday, with the greenback appreciating against most of its major rivals. Euro reaching such low record after German's Merkel coalition CDU ruling party lost another regional election, this time in Frankfurt. The dismal result has jeopardized Merkel's party leadership, and there were headlines suggesting that she won´t run back to lead the party and ever resign to do so.

It’s a busy day ahead for the EUR, with key stats scheduled for release including prelim October inflation numbers out of Spain, France and Germany, 1st estimate GDP numbers for the 3rd quarter out of France, Spain and the Eurozone, together with October unemployment numbers out of Germany and September consumer spending figures out of France.Outside of the numbers, geo-politics will continue to be an influence, stability within the Eurozone coming under a greater threat following Merkel’s decision to step down as CDU leader, with the question now being whether the Grand Coalition can survive with a new leader of the CDU. 

25/ 10/ 2018

Dollar outshines the Rivals on EU & Brexit Political Turmoil

Euro lost its ground against the USD yesterday late session after the European Commission rejected Italy’s 2019 budget and said it will ask Rome to present an amendment within 3 weeks. The dispute over Italy’s spending plans caused investors shifting to safe haven currencies such as the Dollar. Worries about Italy’s spending has bred some doubt about the ECB plans to raise interest rates next summer. GBP struggles to keep up against the Dollar with further political turmoil between Conservative Party Lawmakers & Theresa May Prime Minister, some of whom have discussed toppling her in anger at her Brexit Negotiations.

Today is the major highlight of the week with focus shifting to Draghi and the ECB Press Conference, a myriad of unknowns to consider.