08/ 11/ 2018

US Political Jitters cools off & Economic Data take Center Stage in EU & US

Mid-Term Elections yesterday was the result as anticipated and Democrats hold the House and Trump is lashed out on Attorney General yesterday threatening to terminate further bolstered the Dollar currency confidence among Global Markets. Trump calls out for a Bi-partisan policies decision after the mid-term election to resolve future conflict of interests.

Focus of the day will be around US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision & Mario Draghi’s Speech today. Analyst believe that Federal Reserve decision on changing Interest Rates could highly build more tensions between Trump & Fed after recent lash outs by Trump condoning the Actions taken by Federal Reserve of United States.

07/ 11/ 2018

Dollar Seesawed Versus the Euro anticipating U.S. Mid-Term Elections Results

The Dollar seesawed versus the Euro in a volatile session as traders scanned U.S. Mid-Term election results for early insights into the prospect of Congressional gridlock. The Democratic Party is expected to win control of the U.S. House of Representatives, with the republicans seen likely to keep their majority in the Senate. A split in Congress may hurt the USD temporarily, a Democratic win in one or both chambers is likely to been seen as a rejection of President Donald Trump and the policies which have boosted corporate growth.

“If Congress is split, with Democrats controlling the House and Republicans the Senate, the prospect of legislative gridlock that would make it difficult for policies such as the Donald Trump’s Middle Class tax cuts to pass is negative for the U.S. Dollar.

Looking ahead, focus will be on the Mid-Term US Election Results and it will circulate around on who will hold the control of Congress of United States for the next two years. The results will be out staring midnight GMT, with the final states reporting at around 6:00 GMT. If Republicans retain control, both the greenback and Wall Street will likely react rallying strongly.

06/ 11/ 2018

US Dollar Dips on Anticipation of Midterm Election pushing Euro Upwards

The dollar fell modestly on Monday after three straight weeks of gains, pushing up the euro, with investors anxious a day before the U.S. midterm congressional elections because of possible fallout on the economy.

Looking ahead, for the EUR, economic data scheduled for release is on the heavier side, with the U.S mid-term elections taking centre stage, the Italian coalition government continues to stand strong against the European Commission on the rejected budget proposal. Italy has until 13th November to deliver a revised budget and, with Italy’s debt already downgraded by Moody’s, rising borrowing costs, ballooning debt, a high unemployment rate and a slowing economy spells trouble, not just for Italy but for the Eurozone and the EUR. For the Pound, while the numbers were on the positive side, providing support to the Pound, Brexit continues to be the key driver, the recent upward momentum coming off the back of hopes of a deal at the final hour. With the Irish Prime Minister looking to lay down the law on the Irish border issue and with Theresa May scheduled to update her cabinet on where things stand later today, it may not be all plane sailing for the Pound.

05/ 11/ 2018

Week Ahead | Markets on Edge with Volatility Stoked by the Trade War, Rate Decisions and Election

The US dollar had a turbulent week amid the jobs report, movements in stocks, and as a trade deal between the US and China seems real.  Investor sentiments initially sank on report that Trump was ready impose more tariffs on China, as soon as in December. But then, markets took a U-turn after presidents of both sides held a “long and very good” telephone conversation on Thursday. Suddenly, there is hope for de-escalating US-China trade war with the Trump-Xi meeting as sideline of G20 summit in Argentina on Nov 30 – Dec 1. It should also be remembered that Sterling enjoyed a marvellous rebound on hope that there could be a Brexit deal for that extra EU submit in November. But of course, one could argue that the Pound was also supported by a slight hawkish turn in BoE’s new projections in the quarterly Inflation Report.

Looking ahead, three central banks will meet this week, RBA, RBNZ and Fed. All are expected to stand pat and are unlikely to move the markets. Economic data like UK GDP, ISM services, New Zealand employment, and others could trigger some movements. But in the end, it’s likely US-China trade war, US mid-term election, Brexit negotiations, Italy-EU budget showdown that would determine the main directions.