16/ 01/ 2019

Brexit and a Vote of No Confidence Keep the GBP Front and Center

The historic defeat of UK Prime Minister Theresa May over the Brexit deal triggered some volatility in the Pound. But no clear direction is seen in Sterling after all the moves. It’s staying bounded in relatively tight range overall, with a bias for further rise. 

Looking ahead of the day, with the Brexit deal sunk and Theresa May needing to head back to Brussels, there’s just a vote of no confidence to survive later today, UK data will take center stage again in European session featuring the UK CPI which is usually a mover in normal circumstances. But traders might only be willing to commit further after the no-confidence vote. For now, Sterling will likely gyrate in established range first.

15/ 01/ 2019

It’s Judgement Day for Theresa May and the Pound

Dollar weakened worries over the U.S. economy losing steam as well as a shock contraction in Chinese trade have fanned worries about a sharp global slowdown, which will likely keep the Fed from tightening monetary policy further this year which led to stronger Euro & GBP rebound. China’s exports slipped in December, and exports to the U.S. fell 3.5 percent as rising tariffs and broader weakness affected the world’s second-largest economy. China also announced to cut taxes to sustain their economy due to the exports being affected after far too many Tariffs imposed by U.S against them.

Looking ahead, it’s “risk on” in the early hours, with the main event of the day being Brexit and ECB Draghi's speech in the evening.

14/ 01/ 2019

Week Ahead | Brexit to Take the Spotlight from Fed, Trade War and US Government Shutdown

Euro gave back half of its weekly gains last Friday, amid a sudden return to the greenback. There was no particular catalyst triggering dollar's recovery, although profit-taking ahead of this week events and renewed fears of a global economic slowdown, played their part. These last were fueled by market talks suggesting that China plans to downgrade this year's economic growth target.  The sterling pound run against the greenback to settle at its highest in eight weeks, despite looming Brexit's deal vote in the UK parliament, largely expected to be rejected by lawmakers. The pair surged during London trading hours after Conservative rebel Dominic Grieve urged UK PM Theresa May to delay Brexit if her deal is rejected.

Looking ahead, the focus shifts to the UK with the all-important Brexit vote in a busy week that features other top events.

10/ 01/ 2019

Brexit and ECB Minutes Put the GBP & EUR in Focus

The euro gained yesterday after data showed unemployment in the euro zone unexpectedly fell in November to its lowest rate in more than ten years. On the other hand, sterling gained, reversing some of its previous session losses, following report that British Prime Minister Theresa May is attempting to win over the Northern Irish DUP party in a crucial vote next week on her Brexit deal. Sterling is likely to gain more than 8 percent this year — assuming Britain and the European Union part ways amicably, according to polls of foreign exchange strategists May’s government suffered a defeat in parliament on Tuesday when lawmakers who oppose leaving the EU without an accord won a vote creating a new obstacle to a no-deal Brexit. On Wednesday, May failed to win over the Northern Irish party which props up her government and then lost a vote which means she has a shorter period of time to come up with an alternative plan if she is beaten next week.

With a light economic calendar for the day ahead, Brexit debate and the ECB monetary policy meeting minutes will be in focus.