23/ 01/ 2019

Safe Haven Currencies Gains ahead of ECB Interest Rate Decision

The safe-have Japanese yen kept overnight gains against the dollar as concerns about slowing global growth and U.S.-Sino trade tensions drove investors away from risky assets. Currency markets have been whipsawed over recent weeks as trader tried to come to terms with range of issues from Brexit to slowing global growth and the outlook for major central banks. “Nervousness around global growth and trade tensions is certainly a factor driving the markets right now,” as per Market Analysts & Strategist.

With trade data out of Japan reflecting the slowdown in Asia, Capitol Hill, the Oval Office and Parliament will be in focus through the day.

22/ 01/ 2019

IMF raising flags for a Global Slowdown followed by China's Trade Disputes

The dollar hovered near 2-week highs against its peers earlier today as a slowdown in China’s economy to 28-year lows fanned fresh worries over global growth and prompted investors to move into safe-haven currencies. Overnight, the International Monetary Fund (IMF)Dawas switzertland cut its 2019 and 2020 global growth forecasts, citing a bigger-than-expected slowdown in China and the Eurozone, and said failure to resolve trade tensions could further destabilize a slowing global economy.

On the other hand, British Prime Minister Theresa May sought to break the parliamentary deadlock over Brexit on Monday by proposing to seek further concessions from the European Union on a plan to prevent customs checks on the Irish border. Further U.S. Government shutdown causes more Investors moving to Safe-haven currencies across the globe.

It’s risk off early in the day, growth forecast revisions by the IMF and central banks coming amidst softer GDP numbers.

21/ 01/ 2019

Week Ahead | Geo-Political Trade Tensions will drive the Market, amidst ECB Monetary

Brexit and US-China trade negotiation were the two major themes last week. After a week of drama, it’s still unclear exactly what kind of Brexit deal would get through the Parliament. There’s some positive stride for UK Prime Minister Theresa May on her plan B today. Yet she could fail to deliver again. Nevertheless, Sterling ended as the strongest one last week on perceived diminishing chance on no-deal Brexit.

On the other hand, Dollar gained as there are signs of progress in the trade talks. Or at least, words from the US side were positive. The developments also lifted stocks and treasury yields. The US government shutdown is extending its record run with no end in sight.

Looking ahead, it’s not just China’s economy that the markets are concerned with. An end to the government shutdown and more progress on trade talks is needed. With a Plan B seemingly in the wind, Theresa May could be in hot water later today, with Parliament getting restless.

17/ 01/ 2019

Focus Shifts to EU & Theresa May's Negotiation Battles

Sterling remain as the strongest currency for the week despite Prime Minister Theresa May's narrow escape on UK vote on Brexit at Commons yesterday. Meanwhile, dollar continues to lose support due to govenrment shutdown continuing with no exact direction of closure. Investors would probably stay cautious until May tells us what’s next on Monday

With Theresa May and the Tories surviving the day, focus will shift to the EU and whether the British PM can find better terms.