9th July 2018 - 13th July 2018
On Monday, a scheduled speech by BoJ Governor Kuroda is unlikely to deliver too many surprises following the Japan economies contraction in the 1st quarter, with central bankers likely to have one common concern, the possible impact of an extended trade war on policy., UK and US will dominate the market. For the EUR, following some impressive stats out of Germany last week, German trade data for May kicks off the week on Monday, with Germany and the Eurozone’s ZEW economic sentiment figures for July also likely to influence the EUR on Tuesday. With no material stats due for release on Wednesday, focus will then shift to the ECB monetary policy meeting minutes due out on Thursday, with finalized June inflation figures out of France and Germany and the Eurozone’s industrial production figures due out ahead of the release of the minutes. The week is capped off with Spain’s finalized inflation numbers on Friday. Stats out of Germany along with the ECB monetary policy meeting minutes will be the key drivers through the week, along with central bank commentary. On Tuesday, For the Pound, key stats through the week include May’s industrial and manufacturing production and, trade first release of UK GDP on a monthly basis. This publication is for the month of May and we will also get data for previous months. As it is the first of its kind, the attention and the reaction may be relatively strong, even though this is not a quarterly figure but only a quarterly one with Germany and the Eurozone’s ZEW economic sentiment figures for July also likely to influence the EUR on Tuesday. Stats could provide further support to an August rate hike and the Pound’s recovery to $1.33 levels and beyond. Central banker commentary could raise the prospects of a rate hike further, following BoE Governor Carney’s hawkish comments last week. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada laid down heavy hints that it is about to raise rates in this all-important July meeting, which also consists of new forecasts and a press conference by Governor Stephen Poloz and Deputy Carolyn Wilkins. The economy has shown signs of picking up in the second quarter and the most encouraging data point is the increase in wages. However, trade relations with the US have deteriorated since their last meeting. The US imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum and Canada retaliated. Nevertheless, it seems that the BOC will dismiss this source of uncertainty at the moment and hike from 1.25% to 1.50%. A lot depends on the post-decision press conference. On Thursday, with no material stats due for release on Wednesday, focus will then shift to the ECB monetary policy meeting minutes due out on Thursday, with finalized June inflation figures out of France and Germany and the Eurozone’s industrial production figures due out ahead of the release of the minutes. The European Central Bank made big announcements in its June decision and the policy accounts will reveal more data about the deliberations behind the scenes. The ECB laid out its plan to reduce bond-buying to €15 billion in Q4 2018 and end QE altogether from 2019. However, they also pledged to leave interest rates at current levels through the summer of 2019 and President Mario Draghi stressed the conditionality attached to any changes in the policy. It will be interesting to see how wide Draghi’s backing and the strength of the hawkish camp was led by Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann. The document may also contain hints about further action. Trade concerns may also be of interest after reports stating that the ECB is worried about the implications of trade disputes on the economy. On Friday, again, Member Kashkari will speak to speak through the week, though focus will likely be on the effect of trade tariffs on policy rather than policy itself. From Eurozone, EcoFin Meeting MPC will be there,from UK MPC member Cunliffe are scheduled to speak, which could fuel further expectation of a rate hike by the BoE next month.Monday
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