mask Week Ahead | Trade wars and the ECB Meeting on the Spotlight

24/ 06/ 2018

Week Ahead | Trade wars and the ECB Meeting on the Spotlight

24th June 2018 - 29th June 2018

Monday

  • EUR IFO - Business Climate
  • USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index

The week will start with mid-tier economic data from Euro zone and the US. 

IFO Business Climate data from Germany will start the week which will be an early indicator of the present conditions and business expectations in Germany.

In the US the Chicago Fed Reserve will publish the Fed National Activity which will be a gauge to overall economic activity and the related inflationary pressure.

 

Tuesday

  • USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) FOMC Member Bostic, FOMC Member Kaplan Speech

Tuesday there is no data coming from the Euro Zone and no major data from UK as well.

In US the S&P will release the Case-Shiller Home Price Indices which will observe the changes in the value of residential real estate market in 20 regions across the US. This will indicate the health of US housing market.

The day will end with the speeches from two of the FOMC members which will Economic current conditions of the US and its outlook for the coming months.

 

Wednesday

  • EUR Non-monetary policy's ECB meeting
  • GBP BOE's Governor Carney speech
  • US Durable Goods Orders
  • CAD BoC Governor Poloz Speech

The Non-monetary policy’s ECB meeting will start the day which will involve policy discussion and inflation.

From the UK the BoE Governor Mark Carney’s Speech will be the major event happening on the day for the GBP. The speech will be discussing the economic situation of the UK and gives an instinct on the UK economy in the coming months.

Durable goods order from the US will measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances.

The day will end with the Speech from Bank of Canada Governor Stephen S. Poloz which will discuss the Canadian economic situations.

 

Thursday

  • NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
  • EUR European Council meeting, Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices
  • USD Continuing Jobless Claims, Gross Domestic Product Annualized, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Fed's Bullard speech

Thursday will be an important day for the currency market as many major economic events are happening.

New Zealand Reserve Bank will release its Interest Rate Decision. If the RBNZ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the NZD.

European Council meeting will be a mid-tier event from the Euro zone which will make the Euro volatile.

HICP from Germany is a measure of prices used by Governing Council of EU to define and assess price stability in the euro area in quantitative terms.

The Continuous Jobless Claims from US soon after the Initial Jobless Claim will be measuring the number of individuals who are unemployed and are currently receiving unemployment benefits. It presents the strength in the labor market.

GDP annualized from US is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing.

Core Personal Consumption Expenditure is considered as an important indicator of inflation.

The day end with the Speech from Fed James Bullard. Speech will be discussing the economic activities and the current situation of the US economy.

 

Friday

  • JPY Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food
  • EUR Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales
  • USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index

On the week closing, major data are coming from Japan, Europe and US.

Tokyo CPI ex Fresh food measures the price movements obtained by comparison of the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services, excluding fresh food. This indicates the inflation in Tokyo.

CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone.

From the US, Bureau of Economic Analysis releases Core Personal Consumption Expenditure which is an average amount of money that consumers spend in a month. This will be a significant indicator for inflation.

The Retail Sales data released by Germany is a measure of changes in sales of the German retail sector. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term.