08th June 2020 - 12th June 2020
For the EUR, iIt’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. German industrial production figures for April are due out. We aren’t expecting any influence from the numbers. We’ve seen May manufacturing PMI numbers and the German coalition government has delivered a bazooka stimulus package to give the economy a kick start. Away from the economic calendar, expect market risk sentiment to influence on the day. China’s weak import figure for May is a red flag for manufacturers near-term. For the Pound, it’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out to provide the Pound with direction. The lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of Brexit and market risk sentiment. There was nothing positive, though nothing new on the Brexit front to test support for the Pound. Across the Pond, it’s also a particularly quiet day ahead on the U.S economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the U.S later today.Lack of stats will leave the markets to ponder on what’s to come from the FED on Wednesday. Any chatter from Washington and Beijing will also need monitoring. After surprisingly strong job numbers last week, investors will be hoping that the job openings indicator also rebounds. The indicator slowed in April to 6.18 million, down from 6.88 million beforehand. GDP declined by 3.8 percent in Q1, as the Eurozone has buckled under the economic meltdown due to Covid-19. The third read is expected to confirm this figure. The U.S. economy is slowly recovering from the paralysis due to Covid-19. Will the Fed send an optimistic message to the markets? If so, the U.S. dollar could get a needed boost. Consumer inflation has declined over the past two months, reflective of the severe economic conditions. In April, the headline figure came in at- 0.8%, while core CPI slipped by -0.4%. Both figures are projected at a flat 0.0% in May. Jobless claims continue to drop, albeit at a slow rate. Last week’s figure of 1.87 million marked the first time claims have been below the 2-million level since mid-March. The upcoming forecast stands at 1.55 million. This Melbourne Inflation is closely watched, as inflation expectations can translate into actual inflation figures. The April gain of 3.4% was well off the 4.6% clip seen a month earlier. Inflation levels have been soft, and this could be reflected in a smaller gain in May compared to April. The British economy plunged 5.8% in March, as the economy buckled under the weight of the Covid-19 pandemic. Still, this was better than the forecast of 7.9 percent. Analysts are projecting a staggering -18.0% reading in April. If the economy does hit a double-digit decline, we could see the pound react negatively. The indicator (Consumer Inflation Expectations) is closely watched, as inflation expectations can translate into actual inflation figures. The indicator dipped to 3.0% in Q4 of 2019, its lowest level since Q2 of 2018. We now await the Q1 data.Monday
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