29th April 2019 - 3rd May 2019
On the economic data front, the week kicks off with the FED’s preferred inflation figures due out on Monday. Personal spending will also influence, following weak consumption figures for the 1st quarter. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is an average amount of money that consumers spend in a month. "Core" excludes seasonally volatile products such as food and energy in order to capture an accurate calculation of the expenditure. It is a significant indicator of inflation Business climate indicator, released by European Commission a rise (a fall) in the indicator will point to an upswing in activity and an improvement (deterioration) in the business climate. Its movement is clearly linked to the industrial production of the euro area. Key stats include 1st quarter GDP numbers for France and the Eurozone and German unemployment and consumer sentiment figures due out on Tuesday. Of less influence will be GDP numbers out of Spain and prelim inflation figures out of Italy and Germany, and the Eurozone’s unemployment rate. The Gross Domestic Product released by the Eurostat is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the Eurozone. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the Eurozone economic activity and health.HICP is an index of consumer prices calculated and published by Destatis. HICP is a measure of prices used by Governing Council of EU to define and assess price stability in the euro area as a whole in quantitative terms. First report from US will be Consumer Confidence which is a high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. Followed by final report for the day will be Pending Home Sales released by the National Association of Realtors is a leading indicator of trends of the housing market in the US, as the housing market is considered as a sensitive factor to the US economy, it generates some volatility for the USD The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index shows business conditions in the US manufacturing sector it is a significant indicator of the overall economic condition in US and the number also serves as a hint towards the NFP. Followed by the most important data for this week Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision, a rate hike tends to boost the local currency, as it is understood as a sign of a healthy inflation. A rate cut, on the other hand, is seen as a sign of economic and inflationary woes and, therefore, tends to weaken the local currency. Followed by the official statement released by US Federal Reserve on the Future projections of US Economy. With European markets closed on Wednesday, the focus will then shift to finalized April manufacturing PMI numbers due out on Thursday. The Bank of England is still on course to raise interest rates, had it not been for the high level of uncertainty due to Brexit. Does the delay in the UK’s exit from April to October provide more certainty and raises the chances of a rate rise? Or does the ongoing delay limit the chances of any change? The BOE is expected to leave its interest rate unchanged at 0.75% but the contents of the meeting minutes and the crucial Quarterly Inflation Report will be eyed. Carney’s answers to reporters’ questions will also be of high interest. BoE Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Bank of England which will be based on the current Economic Growth of UK & Mr. Mark Carney’s future projections. The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor a larger than expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the US economy and vice versa. The final read of inflation for March confirmed the slowdown also in price development: only 1.4% on the headline and deterioration to 0.8% on core figures. The preliminary data for April, published now, will feed into the next ECB meeting. The central bank has already taken its dovish tilt. The Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Finally to conclude a busy week US will release their Average hourly Earnings, Non-Farm payrolls and ISM Non-manufacturing which all three Data is considered to be an important indicator of the Inflationary levels of US and their future projections of setting their Interest Rate Decision & Monetary Policies. Monday
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