mask Week Ahead | Economic uncertainty continues with the Virus, Stats and the ECB in Focus

09/ 03/ 2020

Week Ahead | Economic uncertainty continues with the Virus, Stats and the ECB in Focus

9th March 2020 – 13th March 2020

Monday

• EUR Trade Balance s.a. (Jan); Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (Jan) 

It’s also another busy week ahead on the economic data front. In the 1st half of the week, key stats include industrial production and trade data out of Germany on Monday. We will expect any upside to have limited impact on the EUR. On Monday, Eurozone investor confidence figures for March will influence, however.

 

Tuesday

  • GBP BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb)
  • CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
  • EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (Q4); French Non-Farm Payrolls

On Tuesday, 3rd estimate, 4th quarter GDP numbers for the Eurozone will also have a muted impact on the EUR and the European majors. 

 

Wednesday

  • GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jan); Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan); GBP Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (Jan); GBP Trade Balance (Jan)

On Wednesday, manufacturing and industrial production to be the key drivers on the day.The January stats are unlikely to present too many shocks, however, though they will need to support the survey-based numbers that led supported a BoE hold on the monetary policy front.Expect trade data to have a muted impact. The Autumn Budget will be the key driver in the week, however.Expectations had been high before the spread of the coronavirus. The markets will be wanting more now, which leaves the Pound vulnerable.

On the geopolitical front, there’s also Brexit chatter to consider though, with the G7 in focus, animosity may need to take a back seat.A lack of stats on Wednesday leaves the markets to focus on the ECB monetary policy decision on Thursday.

While the FED delivered an emergency rate cut ahead of next week’s FOMC, the ECB has taken the time to assess the situation and consider its options. No doubt some coordination with member states on intentions vis-à-vis fiscal policy is ongoing behind the scenes.

 

Thursday

  • EUR Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan); ECB Monetary Policy Statement; Interest Rate Decision; Marginal Lending Facility; Deposit Facility Rate (Mar)
  • USD Initial Jobless Claims; Core PPI (MoM) (Feb)

On Thursday, expect the Dollar to respond in a similar way to wholesale inflation numbers due out on Thursday. We will expect greater sensitivity to the weekly jobless claims figures, however. The markets are looking for any negative fallout and the jobless claims figures will certainly be one area of focus.

 

Friday

  • EUR German, French, Spanish CPI (MoM) (Feb) 
  • USD Export Price Index (MoM);Import Price Index (MoM) (Feb); USD Michigan Consumer Expectations/ Sentiment (Mar)

On Friday, March prelim consumer sentiment figures from US due out on Friday will also influence on Friday.