25th March 2019 - 29th March 2019
EUR IFO Expectations, Business Climate On Monday, it’s a particularly busy week ahead for the EUR. The week kicks off with business sentiment figures out of Germany. The focus will be on the Business Climate Index figure This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative. On Tuesday, the GfK Consumer Confidence is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. Generally speaking, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negativeConsumer confidence was hit by the government shutdown but recovered according to both the University of Michigan’s measure and also this one. Confidence is correlated with actual consumption. After hitting a level of 131.4 in February, a similar number is due for March. German consumer sentiment figures and French GDP numbers on Tuesday will also influence ahead of a busy Friday. On Wednesday, outside the stats, ECB President Draghi could hit the EUR in a scheduled speech which will surely affect the market. The first release of US GDP came out late, at the time of the second release. However, it did surprise to the upside with an annual growth rate of 2.6%, above expectations and reflecting only a moderate slowdown. The US economy outperformed its peers. The final figure may be a touch lower. From US, the Gross Domestic Product Annualized released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced within a country in a given period of time. GDP Annualized is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative followed by the Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market. A larger than expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the US economy. Generally speaking, a decreasing number should be taken as positive or bullish for the USD. According to the first release, the UK economy grew by 0.2% q/q in the last quarter of 2018, the same as the euro-zone. The slow growth comes after better figures beforehand. The final read will likely confirm the initial one, but revisions to the annual figure are rather common. 2nd estimate, 4th quarter GDP and business investment figures will influence the Pound on Friday. Barring a material deviation from prelim figures, however, Brexit progress will remain the key driver.Monday
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