The biggest story last week was the meltdown in equities that spilled over to currencies. U.S. stocks turned negative for the year after erasing all its gains. Last week, sterling popped after Prime Minister May managed to secure a deal with the European Union, but the agreement does not resolve many of the major issues that put the deal at risk.

Spain made it clear that they will reject any agreement that leaves them out of talks involving the status of Gibraltar. Now the UK needs a majority (not all) of the 27-member states to support the agreement but given Spain's role, the agreement will most likely be amended which could lead to further back and forth to satisfy their concerns.

It’s a big week ahead, with news from the EU Summit on Brexit, Brexit news, the FED’s meeting minutes and the G20 in focus through the week.

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mask Week Ahead | Brexit, the FED and the G20 to Move the Markets

25/ 11/ 2018

Week Ahead | Brexit, the FED and the G20 to Move the Markets

Daily Update - 25th November 2018

Sunday

• GBP EU Brexit Summit

European and UK leaders meet to discuss a potential agreement on the Brexit terms. For the UK, even if EU leaders approve the agreement, Prime Minister May still needs to sell it to Parliament. She needs 320 votes to pass a deal and there are 650 seats in Parliament. She should have at least 316 conservative votes but there's almost no chance that she'll get any of the 10 DUP votes, so her job will be to convince members of the opposition Labor party to support her deal.

 

Monday

• AUD RBA's Governor Philip Lowe Speech

• EUR ECB President Draghi's Speech

• GBP BOE's Governor Carney speech   

The Week Starts with Australia RBA Governor Philip Lowe Speech which will be a market mover for the Aussie Dollars. The Speech from the ECB President Mario Draghi will be an important market mover after the EU Brexit Summit which will be held on Sunday and continues today. A hawkish statement from the ECB President will show a positive move for the Euro. UK Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will give out a speech which will be crucial as the EU Brexit deal draft have been submitted to the EU. 

 

Tuesday

• NZD Trade Balance

• EUR ECB's Mersch speech

Tuesday will be a dull day for currency market as there is no major reports from the US and Europe. New Zealand will release the Trade balance which is a measure of balance amount between import and export. A positive value shows a trade surplus while a negative value shows a trade deficit. Any variation in the figures influences the domestic economy. 

 

Wednesday

• GBP Financial Stability Report

• USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized & Core Personal Consumption Expenditures

• USD Fed's Powell Speech

The Financial Stability Report, published twice a year by the Bank of England under the guidance of the interim Financial Policy Committee, shows the Committee's assessment of the outlook for the stability and resilience of the financial sector at the time of preparation of the Report, and the policy actions it advises to reduce and mitigate risks to stability.

The Gross Domestic Product Annualized released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced within a country in a given period of time. GDP Annualized is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Also the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce will be an important indicator of inflation. 

 

Thursday

• CHF Gross Domestic Product 

• EUR Unemployment Rate & Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices

• USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure & FOMC Minutes

The Gross Domestic Product released by the Swiss Statistics is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Switzerland. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of Swiss economic activity and health. Unemployment Rate published by the German Statistics Office shows , in a percent basis, the amount of unemployed people in Germany, using seasonally adjusted data. A decrease in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is an average amount of money that consumers spend in a month. "Core" excludes seasonally volatile products such as food and energy to capture an accurate calculation of the expenditure. It is a significant indicator of inflation.

 

Friday

• GFK Consumer Confidence

On the week closing, no major data are released. Mid-Tier data coming from UK will be the only report. The GfK Group Consumer Confidence is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low-level drive to economic downturn.