01/ 08/ 2018

US Dollar Price Action Setups Ahead of FOMC & NFP

The Euro declined against US dollar yesterday as dollar firmed on believes that U.S. Federal Reserve is set to reaffirm the outlook for further gradual rate rises at the end of its two-day monetary policy meeting. Strong economic growth and steadily rising inflation are likely to allow the Federal Reserve to continue gradually raising interest rates. Sterling declined against dollar as the dollar rebounded and investors prepared for a bank of England policy meeting this week. Sterling has recovered somewhat in recent sessions, moving away from the 10-month low it touched earlier July on growing worries that Britain was headed for a cliff-edge departure from European Union.

Looking ahead, July’s manufacturing PMI from Eurozone and UK scheduled for release. It’s another busy day for the Dollar, while we can expect the nonfarm and ISM manufacturing PMI to provide some direction, Dollar sensitivity to any weak stats amidst the ongoing trade war heightened, focus will be on the rate statement. 

31/ 07/ 2018

Sterling Pound Edges Higher before Bank of England Rate Vote

It was a mixed data from United States & Euro Zone on Monday while Germany Inflation showed signs of steady growth in July. US Housing & Business Data was quite encouraging but not strong enough to offset anticipation of coming days of first tier data to come. Analysts believe this could be a profit taking event ahead of first tier events to take place on the next following days. On the other hand, sterling pound rose yesterday before Bank of England rate week. Bank of England looks set to pass a post financial crisis milestone on Thursday finally could be raising Interest Rates above their emergency levels set more than 9 Years ago.

Looking ahead, a particularly busy economic calendar puts the EUR and USD in focus later, with the BoJ policy decision due shortly.

29/ 07/ 2018

Week Ahead | US Fed, ECB & BOE in Focus for a Strong Data influenced Week

Friday ECB left rates and QE unchanged, as largely expected while no relevance were made to the usual statement. When Draghi was questioned in the press conference about the actual meaning of “Through the summer of 2019 the rates will remain at record lows” he clarified that no action will be expected at least until September 2019. Trade War fears partially ceased between US & Europe after Trump & Juncker’s meeting on last Wednesday in Washington. Both parties agreed a New Phase in the Trade Relationship. Donald Trump stated he will pull back from imposing tariffs on cars in a joint statement. Both pledged “Will work together toward zero tariffs, Zero Non-tariff barriers & Zero Subsidies on non-auto industrial goods. But no official formal agreement has been put down, which is unreliable yet as per Analysts.

While on the UK Arena Theresa May taking a stronghold of Brexit negotiations kept sterling afloat but analysts believe that UK is slowly loosing grip on the Brexit deal. While on the back run Mark Carney & Bank of England is widely expected the raise the Interest Rate on Thursday together with release of their August Inflationary Reports.

26/ 07/ 2018

Draghi back on Focus followed by Trump & Juncker Truce from Yesterday's Meeting

Dollar drops as U.S-EU agree to reduce tariffs. In yesterday’s meeting with Juncker, Trump and Juncker has decided to reduce tariffs and trade tensions. Trump also made a comment about China using the U. S farmers as trade pawn. The euro strengthened against US dollar on Wednesday as greenback weakened after President Donald Trump secured concessions from the European Union to avoid a trade war. Sterling rose against the dollar yesterday to its highest in a week due to Prime Minister Theresa May's decision to take control of Brexit negotiations. With less than nine months before Britain is due to leave the European Union

Looking ahead, economic data scheduled for release includes consumer confidence figures out of France, Italy and more importantly Germany, with Germany’s August GfK Consumer Climate figure likely to be the key driver through the morning. While we can expect some support for the EUR and direction from the consumer confidence numbers, the ECB monetary policy decision and all-important press conference later in the day will be the key drivers, the outcome of Juncker’s meeting with Trump certainly putting a different spin on today’s press conference.