25/ 11/ 2018

Week Ahead | Brexit, the FED and the G20 to Move the Markets

The biggest story last week was the meltdown in equities that spilled over to currencies. U.S. stocks turned negative for the year after erasing all its gains. Last week, sterling popped after Prime Minister May managed to secure a deal with the European Union, but the agreement does not resolve many of the major issues that put the deal at risk.

Spain made it clear that they will reject any agreement that leaves them out of talks involving the status of Gibraltar. Now the UK needs a majority (not all) of the 27-member states to support the agreement but given Spain's role, the agreement will most likely be amended which could lead to further back and forth to satisfy their concerns.

It’s a big week ahead, with news from the EU Summit on Brexit, Brexit news, the FED’s meeting minutes and the G20 in focus through the week.

22/ 11/ 2018

EU Summit in Brussels take center stage for GBP

The U.S markets are closed for Thanksgiving but we can still expect plenty of action in Europe, with Brexit and Italy still in focus. Economic data released through the Asian session this morning was limited to October inflation figures out of Japan ahead of Friday’s public holiday. For the Japanese Yen, the annual rate of core inflation came in at 1% in October, which was in line with forecasts and September numbers.

Focus of the day for the EUR will be on economic data scheduled for release is limited to prelim October consumer confidence numbers out of the Eurozone, with the ECB’s monetary policy meeting minutes scheduled for release ahead of the consumer confidence numbers to be the key driver later in the day. While for the Pound, it's expected to be another quiet day on the data front which will leave the Pound in the hands of Brexit chatter through the day. Theresa May’s progress on Brexit critical to avoiding more backlash in Parliament ahead of the EU Summit. The British PM’s visit to Brussels ahead of Sunday’s EU Summit will garner plenty of attention, the finer details needing to be resolved to allow member states to vote on the details ahead of a ratification by parliament.

21/ 11/ 2018

It’s Judgement Day for Italy and the EUR

The dollar traded firm against major peers on Wednesday, extending overnight gains as investors shunned riskier assets in favour of safe haven currencies on escalating worries about slowing global growth and the U.S.-Sino trade war. The greenback had been under pressure for most of this week as cautious comments by Federal Reserve officials and surprisingly weak U.S. economic data suggested the central bank could slow the pace of monetary policy tightening. What’s driving currency markets right now are fears of a slowdown in economic growth with safe haven currencies like the dollar and yen likely to benefit which was announced by Chief Economic Strategist Michael from CMC Markets.

Looking ahead, it’s a big day for the EUR, as the Italian coalition government awaits the EU Commission response to a slightly amended budget.

19/ 11/ 2018

Week Ahead | Brexit, Italy, Trade Talks and Policy Meeting Minutes in Focus

Sterling was overwhelming the weakest one last week on Brexit political drama in the UK. It’s now even uncertain for how long Prime Minister Theresa would stay in position, not to mention if there would be an agreement for orderly Brexit. Dollar followed as the second weakest after cautious comments from Fed officials prompted traders to pare back bets on Fed’s rate path. Euro was mixed only, thanks to other happenings overshadowing Italy-EU budget clash.

Looking ahead, the economic calendar is relatively light this week, in particular with US on Thanksgiving holiday. RBA and ECB minutes will catch some attentions. Also, Eurozone PMIs and Canada CPI and retail sales will be watched. The main focuses will remain on UK politics, Italy budget, US-China trade talks and FED speaks.