06/ 02/ 2019

FED Remains in the Spotlight with Brexit in Focus

The major U.S. equity indexes closed higher on Tuesday, boosted by optimism ahead of President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address. Volume and volatility were below average primarily due to absence of major Asian traders because of the Lunar New Year holiday. Nonetheless, investors still responded positively, for the most part, to solid earnings reports.

There were no material stats released through the Asian session this morning to provide direction. Trump failed to rattle the markets in his State of the Union speech, leaving economic data and Brexit chatter in focus through the day.

05/ 02/ 2019

Tonight’s State of the Union Speech will be in Focus

Euro was very quiet during the trading session on Monday, dipping slightly but basically just hanging around the same area that we have been in for a couple of sessions. Ultimately, there is plenty of reasons that the market continues to go back and forth due to the Federal Reserve softening its stance, but at the same time we are getting less than impressive economic figures out of the European Union. Disappointing data out of the Eurozone and upbeat numbers out of the U.S gives the Dollar momentum going into the week.

For the day ahead, Trump will be the main area of focus. It’s a busy day as Service sector PMI figures for January are scheduled for release this afternoon. The focus will be on the market’s preferred ISM surveyed numbers. The Dollar will be sensitive to the figures, which are due out ahead of the State of the Union Speech.

04/ 02/ 2019

Week Ahead | The Greenback is on the Move with Brexit, BoE, and Trump in Focus

Fed’s dovish turn occupied a lot of head lines last week. Stocks were lifted while Dollar was pressured. However, the moves were not as drastic as they could seem to be. There was no upside acceleration in stocks. Over the week, Sterling was the weakest one as Brexit enters a new chapter. Within a few days, the UK government might be ready to unveil what alternative proposal on Irish border backstop they have, to persuade EU to reopen withdrawal agreement negotiation. 

Monetary policy and the State of the Union Speech will be of influence alongside economic data through the week.

31/ 01/ 2019

With Fed’s “Patient” Stance, Eyeing GDP ahead of NFP

The Euro traded once again within a well-limited range just above the 1.1400 figure for the first half of yesterday, showing little reaction to macroeconomic data, as German figures disappointed big, while the US ADP beat the market's estimates. The greenback collapsed afterward as the Central Bank dropped the language about further gradual hikes. Newly dovish US Central Bank which includes "altering the size and composition of its balance sheet," depending on future economic conditions. Indeed, dovish stance as the case for further rate hikes has now decreased according to Powell's words. The Sterling spent the day under pressure, with bulls disappointed after the UK Parliament voted to re-negotiate the Irish backstop within the Brexit deal.

Looking ahead, key stats included December industrial production figures out of Japan, December private sector credit numbers out of Australia and January private sector PMI numbers out of China. Outside of the stats, the markets also continued to respond to the overnight FOMC statement and the continued shift in the FED’s outlook on rates.