05/ 03/ 2019

Dollar outruns the Rivals as euro flags ahead of ECB meeting

The dollar held near a two-week high against its key rivals on Monday & early session of today so far underpinning by a resilient economy and a flagging euro ahead of an upcoming European Central Bank policy meeting. The euro in particular remained wobbly before the ECB meeting on Thursday. The ECB is facing growing pressure to address how to protect the euro zone economy from a protracted slowdown. Sterling lost far too much ground against the Dollar on the first of day of markets.

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett stated to the positive mood and said US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has made a lot of progress with China and the deal may be finished some time soon. Also, as reported that a signing summit could be held on March 27. On the other hand, EU-US trade negotiations will also start this week.

It’s risk off through the early part of the day. Economic data out of China suggests more doom and gloom as the National People’s Congress gets underway with today’s focus will be around Euro Zone, UK Governor Speech & US ISM Manufacturing.

03/ 03/ 2019

Week Ahead | Trump States "Stronger Dollar is bad for Business", while Focus will be on UK & Euro Monetary Policy

The pound slipped on Friday after survey data showed British factories slashed jobs in February, but still enjoyed its biggest weekly rise in a month on receding fears that Britain will leave the European Union without a deal. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said last week the central bank would probably give more support to the economy if it suffers the shock of a no-deal Brexit, though its options are limited. Common currency Euro edged higher than last week’s closing against the Dollar on Unemployment figures from Europe & US reports such as ISM & Markit figures illustrates slowdown of the Economy of United States.

U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday as investors sold off safe-haven assets on hopes for a U.S. trade deal with China and shrugged off soft economic data reports.

This week will be busy around Europe & UK Monetary Policy Statement & Non-Farm payrolls from United States.

28/ 02/ 2019

Dollar remains on limelight with Trump – Kim Meeting Summit & Powell Speech

The dollar held above a three-week low earlier today as investors remained cautious amid uncertainty over the progress in U.S.-China trade talks, while sterling rallied on bets that the chance of a no-deal Brexit was shrinking. Sterling held onto gains after rallying to its highest levels in seven months on Wednesday as traders ramped up bets that a no-deal Brexit was less likely and that Britain’s departure from the European Union would be delayed. British Prime Minister Theresa May on Tuesday had offered lawmakers the chance to vote in two weeks for a no-deal Brexit or to delay Britain’s exit from the E.U. if her attempt to ratify an agreement fails.

While the events in the past 24 hours were rather high profile, little reactions were triggered. USTR Robert Lighthizer’s testimony on China trade talk, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony and Trump-Kim summit in Vietnam are shrugged off. Technically, Sterling aside, direction in the forex markets is not clear. Dollar weakened this week against Euro but downside momentum looks to be diminishing.

The calendar is rather busy today. Germany will release Consumer Price Index. Later in the day, US will finally release Q4 GDP, Jobless claims and Jerome Powell’s Speech will be the highlight.

27/ 02/ 2019

North Korea – U.S Summit & Powell Keep the USD in Focus

The dollar languished near three-week lows earlier today as a reaffirmation of a patient stance by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and a newly resurgent pound kept U.S. currency bears in firm control. Powell said on Tuesday that rising risks and recent soft data were unlikely to prevent solid growth for the U.S. economy this year, but that the Fed would remain “patient” on further interest rate hikes.

Sterling rises broadly yesterday and takes out key resistance against Dollar and Euro. UK has moved a big step in avoiding no-deal Brexit. Prime Minister Theresa May announced to hold three separate votes on Brexit deal, no-deal Brexit and delay. The key is, no-deal Brexit is no longer the default position on March 29. But it could only happen with explicit consent of the Parliament.

Looking ahead, the Dollar’s on the move early, in spite of Powell’s Testimony on Tuesday. Volatility is expected from UK & US economic data while the focus will be on day 2 and the U.S – North Korea Summit as U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will meet on later today for their second summit, betting their personal relationship can break a stalemate over the North’s nuclear weapons and end more than 70 years of hostility.