20/ 08/ 2019

Dollar Toughens on Stimulus while Focus remains on Jackson Hole Symposium

The dollar held near a three-week high on Monday, as expectations global economies would unleash fresh stimulus and an improvement in appetite for riskier assets lifted yields on U.S. government bonds, markets are now focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium this week for greater clarity on the future path of interest rates. Sterling edged lower against dollar, although sentiment towards the pound was better than in recent sessions as investors hoped Britain and the European Union could make some progress in Brexit talks

The pound last week had its strongest run in two months, helped by investors cutting their bets against the currency and some buying from traders who believe Britain can avoid a no-deal Brexit in October, when the country is due to leave the EU. Prime Minister Boris Johnson will meet French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel this week ahead of a G7 summit on Aug. 24-26 in Biarritz, France. 

Particular focus will cue on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments on monetary policy at a time when investors widely expect the Fed to cut rates again at its next meeting in September. High-tier data to look forward for today will be Australian Reserve Bank Minutes & Germany Producer Price Index.

19/ 08/ 2019

Week Ahead | Brexit Info Leaks, US FOMC Jerome Powell's Speech & ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts to Drive the Market

Euro ended last week as the weakest one as comments from a top ECB official suggested a forceful easing package to be announced in September. Additionally recession fear in Germany sent 10-year bund yield to new record low. New Zealand Dollar followed as the second weakest on dovish RBNZ expectations. The overbought Yen was the third weakest despite falling yields as it was consolidating recent gains. On the other hand, Sterling was the strongest last week, paring some of recent losses, awaiting the next move regarding Brexit. Dollar followed as the second strongest, mainly because of weakness elsewhere.

This week’s could be crucial for the greenback as focus will turn to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, and FOMC minutes. Euro, will also look into ECB policy accounts and PMIs. 

15/ 08/ 2019

Yen, Dollar Higher as Safe-havens Benefit from Recession Fears

The euro declined against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, as global recession fears grew, with the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverting for the first time since 2007 and Germany reporting that its economy had shrunk in the second quarter. On the other hand, the pound edged higher against dollar  after inflation picked up in July, but the currency held within sight of a two-and-a-half year low as brewing concerns about a no-deal Brexit weighed on investor sentiment.

It’s a quiet day ahead on the Eurozone economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the Eurozone today to provide the majors with direction. A lack of stats will leave the European majors in the hands of geopolitical risk and sentiment towards the global economy ahead of the U.S open. Out of the U.S, manufacturing sector and retail sales figures will have an influence on the European majors late in the down, however. Any weak retail sales figures and expect more pain across the majors.

14/ 08/ 2019

Dollar, Yuan Jumped after U.S. makes Trade Concessions to China

Risk aversion has dominated the first two sessions of the day, suddenly flipping to quite a positive mood just ahead of the US opening. The U-turn in sentiment came after the US Trade Representative, Lighthizer crossed the wires announcing that additional tariffs on some Chinese imports, will be delayed until December 15. Interestingly, the U.S administration cited health, safety, and national security as the reason behind the delay.

It’s another busy day ahead on the Eurozone economic calendar. Key stats on the day include German and Eurozone 2nd quarter GDP numbers. The Eurozone’s June industrial production figures will also provide direction. Finalized July inflation figures out of France will likely have a muted impact on the majors, however. With economic data out of the U.S limited to import and export price figures, focus late in the session will be on geopolitics.