28/ 06/ 2018

Trade war anxiety continues to dominate the headlines

The euro declined against US dollar on Wednesday as concern about an escalating trade conflict boosted the dollar. The euro slipped in US session, under pressure from the trade conflict, the threat of a political crisis in Germany and uncertainty over a European Union summit. Britain's pound declined sharply against the dollar yesterday as the greenback rebounded, on track for its biggest daily drop in nearly two weeks, as imminent Brexit talks and doubts the Bank of England will raise interest rates at all this year darkened the outlook for the pound.

The focus for today remains the EU Summit, where the European leaders meet about a range of global economic issues, including migration, security, defense, and the economy, in Brussels. The main topic of discussion on agenda is likely to be the migrant policy, which will have a major impact on the bloc’s political stability, especially concerning the German political climate, with Merkel in disagreement with her coalition.Across the Pond, stats through the day include finalized 1st quarter GDP numbers along with the weekly jobless claim figures.

27/ 06/ 2018

BoE Governor Mark Carney in Focus

Today the market will be mainly driven by risk-off flows, as the chances of a full-blown US-Sino trade war increase following reports that the Chinese President Xi called on all the provinces and ministers to prepare for a trade war. There has been nothing of note, in terms of economic data, so far this week from the EUR docket and today’s EUR macro calendar is no different. Hence, all eyes remain on the Bank of England (BOE) Governor Carney’s speech. Carney is due to hold a press conference following the release of the Financial Stability Report (FSR). Meanwhile, the UK CBI realized sales data will help keep the EUR. GBP traders somewhat busy.  

Today the NA calendar remains eventful, with a string of economic releases from the US docket, including the durable goods and goods trade balance. Later on, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) quarterly bulletin will be published, followed by the US pending home sales and EIA crude stockpiles data. Besides, speeches by the FOMC member Quarles and Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Poloz will be reported. The USD may find fresh bids if the US durable goods orders betters market expectations. However it is expected to be negative, but better than the last figure of -1.6%. The US goods trade balance and pending home sales figure could also influence the USD demand.

26/ 06/ 2018

Trade Tension Remains with Speeches to Direct the Market Through the Day

The Dollar/Yen traded lower on Monday, putting it in a position to hit a two-week low, as worries about an escalating trade war between the United States and its major trade partners continued to weigh on appetite for risk.The EUR/USD strengthened on Monday, following through to the upside after Friday’s rally was fueled by improved regional economic growth data and new assurances by Italian politicians that their nation would not leave the single currency.

Markets head into a data-light EUR calendar for the second straight trading day while the headlines around the trade war issue continue to drive the sentiment. There is nothing on the cards from the Euroland. However, the testimony by the newly appointed Bank of England (BOE) MPC member Haskel before the Treasury Select Committee (TSC) will be eyed for fresh hints on the UK’s interest rates outlook while BOE member McCafferty is due to speak about monetary policy. From US, FOMC members Bostic and Kaplan are scheduled to speak later in the day, with any central bank commentary now likely to be factoring in the possible impact of a trade war on the U.S economy and outlook on rates.

24/ 06/ 2018

Week Ahead | Trade wars and the ECB Meeting on the Spotlight

The sterling assembled the most in more than two months after the BoE’s Chief Economist Andy Haldane unexpectedly supported an interest-rate increase, enhancing prospects of tighter policy in coming months. Prime Minister Theresa May is due to meet her peers at the European Union summit on June 28-29 and the tone of the negotiations could be a key driver for sterling in the coming days.

From US, President Donald tweeted that US is planning to impose 20 percent tariff on all the European cars coming into the US. The US may rationalize the auto tariffs on the grounds of national defense, like it did in March when imposing duties on steel and aluminum global imports.

It’s a busy week ahead on the data front, though focus through the week will continue to be geo-political, with trade wars and the EU Summit to consider.