mask Cautious on Risk Focus Shifts to Brexit, Trump-Liu Meeting

04/ 04/ 2019

Cautious on Risk Focus Shifts to Brexit, Trump-Liu Meeting

Daily Update - 4th April 2019

Yesterday’s Market

•             EUR - Markit PMI Service & Composite

•             USD - ISM Non-manufacturing PMI

•             USD - Markit Service PMI & PMI Composite

Yesterday’s Explained

Markit Economics reported above the consensus Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for Spain, Italy, and France. Eurozone February Retail Sales Figures YoY recorded higher in comparison to the expectations. Easing global conditions amid settling US-China trade talks and Brexit hopes, further helped the pair to maintain the upper levels during the day.

US March ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) recorded lower than the market expectation. Services sector activity hit low in March and private payrolls grew less than expected which highlights the loss of momentum in the US economy that supports the Federal Reserve’s move to suspend interest rate hikes this year.

 

Today’s Market

•             USD - Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims

•             CHF - Consumer Price Index

Today’s Explained

Thursday will be the lightest day of the week in terms of macroeconomic releases, as Germany will release February Factory Orders while the US will unveil March Challenger Jobs' Cuts and weekly unemployment claims. The ECB will publish the Minutes of its latest meeting, not expected to surprise. Markets could consolidate ahead of Friday's US NFP release.

FOMC members will be out in force once more. The markets will be working out the balance on when the first-rate cut is likely. Anything more dovish than a September cut and expect the markets to react.