mask Week Ahead | US data and Fed speakers to dominate; limited risk seen from German elections

24/ 09/ 2017

Week Ahead | US data and Fed speakers to dominate; limited risk seen from German elections

25th September 2017 - 29th September 2017

Monday

•          EUR IFO - Business Climate

•          USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index

On Monday, there are no major events or indicators on the economic calendar. From Germany, IFO Business Climate data starts to release which indicates the current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning.

Later in the day, from US, The Dallas Fed conducts the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey monthly to obtain a timely assessment of the state's factory activity. Firms are asked by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas whether output, employment, orders, prices and other indicators increased, decreased or remained unchanged over the previous month. Survey responses are used to calculate an index for each indicator

 

Tuesday

•          JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

•          GBP Inflation Report Hearings

•          USD New Home Sales Change (MoM)

Early hours in the UAE, BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will be released. The Bank of Japan publishes a study of economic movements in Japan after the actual meeting. These meetings are held to review economic developments inside and outside of Japan and indicate a sign of new fiscal policy. Any changes in this report tend to affect the JPY volatility.

Later in the day, UK will release its Inflation Report Hearings. In this report, The Treasury Committee is appointed by the House of Commons is to examine the expenditure, administration and policy of HM Treasury, HM Revenue & Customs, and associated public bodies.

Later in the day, from US, New Home Sales Change indicates how House buyers spend money on furnishing and financing their homes so as a result the demand for goods, services and the employees is stimulated

 

Wednesday

•          GBP Gross Domestic Product

•          USD Durable Goods Orders & Pending Home Sales

The Gross Domestic Product released by the National Statistics is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the UK. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the UK economic activity.

From US, The Durable Goods Orders, released by the US Census Bureau, measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances. As those durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. The final figure shows the state of US production activity.

Also from US, The Pending Home Sales released by the National Association of Realtors is a leading indicator of trends of the housing market in the US It captures residential housing contract activity of existing single-family homes. As the housing market is considered as a sensitive factor to the US economy, it generates some volatility for the USD.

 

Thursday

•          EUR Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey & Economic Sentiment Indicator & Industrial Confidence

•          US Gross Domestic Product Annualized, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures  & Initial Jobless Claims

Important day for Europe in terms of data. Firstly, from Germany, Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey which is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while some low-level drives to economic downturn. Then Economic Sentiment Indicator as a whole, shows the consumers’ confidence in economic activity. It indicates the trend of the overall Euro Zone economy. Then followed by Industrial Confidence, which measures the level of industrial executive’s confidence in economic activity. The survey asks about orders and buildup of inventories.

Later in the day, from US, The Gross Domestic Product Annualized released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced within a country in a given period of time. GDP Annualized is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing.

Then is Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) , which shows an average of the amount of money the consumers spend in a month on durable goods, consumer products, and services. It is considered as an important indicator of inflation

Also, The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market.

 

Friday

•          EUR Unemployment Rate s.a. / Consumer Price Index (YoY)

•          GBP Consumer Credit / Mortgage Approvals

•          US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (YoY)

Another important day in terms of data. From Germany, Unemployment rate data released. Data published by the German Statistics Officeshows , in a percent basis, the amount of unemployed people in Germany, using seasonally adjusted data. A decrease in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) , released by INSEE is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of the Euro is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends.

Then From UK, Consumer Credit released by the Bank of England is an amount of money that individuals borrowed in the previous month. It shows if consumers can afford large expenses, which can fuel economic growth. And also The Mortgage Approvals released by the Bank of England presents the number of various Mortgage Approvals. It is considered as a leading indicator of the UK Housing Market. A Mortgage growth represents a healthy housing market that stimulates the overall UK economy.

To finish the week with, from US, The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is an average amount of money that consumers spend in a month. "Core" excludes seasonally volatile products such as food and energy in order to capture an accurate calculation of the expenditure. It is a significant indicator of inflation.