mask The Week Ahead | Can the US Inflation Figures Support the Dollar?

12/ 02/ 2018

The Week Ahead | Can the US Inflation Figures Support the Dollar?

12th Feb to 16th Feb 2018


  • USD Monthly Budget Statement

A quiet day in terms of data as we will only see Monthly Budget Statement released by USA, which summarizes the financial activities of federal entities, disbursing officers, and Federal Reserve banks.


  • GBP Producer Price Index, Consumer Price Index & retail Price Index
  • USD FOMC member Mester Speech

An important day for the Pound as key figures will be released, related to UK inflation. After the BOE turned hawkish, market expectations for a rate hike in May 2018 have risen quite substantially. However, a lot depends on the inflation which is keeping up at the moment. The day will end with a speech from FOMC member.


  • EUR Gross Domestic Product, Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Industrial Production
  • USD Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index

An important day for Euro as GDP figures will be released from Germany, the powerhouse economy of euro zone, along with whole euro zone GDP figures. Then from Germany we will see consumer price index which is measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes. These will be followed by Industrial Production which shows the volume of production of Industries such as factories and manufacturing.

Then the focus shifts to USA with the release of Retail Sales which measures the total receipts of retail stores. The day will end with all important Inflation figures. With solid economic growth, an upbeat job market and even higher wages, the absence of inflation is a “mystery” for US to keep up with expected rate hikes.


  • AUD Unemployment Rate & Employment Change
  • USD Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims, NAHB Housing Market Index

Australia will be releasing their Unemployment Rate which shows the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. This will be followed by Employment Change which is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia.

The latter half of the day belongs to USA, with the release of job market data mainly Continuing jobless claims and initial jobless claims. This will be followed by NAHB Housing Price index which presents home sales and expected home buildings in the future indicating housing market trend in the United States.


  • AUD RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe Speech
  • GBP Retail Sales
  • USD Housing Starts & Building Permits

Philip Lowe the RBA Governor will do a speech in the morning. After this we will see the release of Retail sales from UK. This report measures the total receipts of retail stores. Then the focus shifts to US with the release of Building permits and housing starts.

Each of these reports have a significant impact when they move in tandem but they can also offset each other. In December, building permits stood at a high annualized level of 1.30 million and are expected to tick up to 1.31 million. Housing starts lagged behind with 1.19 million and 1.23 million is projected now.