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mask Week Ahead | Will Draghi drag the Euro down or unleash further upside?

21/ 01/ 2018

Week Ahead | Will Draghi drag the Euro down or unleash further upside?

The dollar continued to remain on the backfoot for another week. However, it was not a one-sided affair. The greenback did fight back to some extent though mixed housing data and the threat for a government shutdown loomed large. It is the bullish comments from some of the Fed officials as regards the economy that helped the currency put up a strong fight. The news from the previous week that China might move away from U.S. Treasuries continued to put pressure on the greenback. However, a correction was also observed, especially in USD/JPY pair. In the euro-zone, European Central Bank officials’ effort to use the strategy ‘talk-down-the-euro’ met with only partial success. As U.K.’s inflation data came out as analysts expected and some amount of calm prevailed on the Brexit front, the pound could stabilize a little bit.

This week brings us GDP from the US and the UK, Rate decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference in Japan and Europe and many other events await us in a busy week. Furthermore, The US. government shutdown happened after markets closed on Friday, and has yet to take effect.

 

mask Euro Inflation Meets Expectations, Pound Gains on Brexit Consideration, USD on Slide

18/ 01/ 2018

Euro Inflation Meets Expectations, Pound Gains on Brexit Consideration, USD on Slide

The Euro has come off its highs against the U.S Dollar and is below 1.22. Inflation data from the European Union met its target yesterday, which sets traders up for next week’s European Central Bank pronouncements. The Pound was stronger, however, yesterday, as some British politicians suggested a softer approach to the Brexit is possible. European equities continued to produce selling on Wednesday.

The U.S Dollar continues to struggle for direction, with Dollar giving back some of Wednesday’s gains ahead today’s data that is forecasted to be Dollar negative with the Jobless Claims released from US.

mask USD and EUR being watched, with BOC in Focus

17/ 01/ 2018

USD and EUR being watched, with BOC in Focus

It’s been a wild 24-hours for the U.S. Dollar. On Tuesday, the dollar posted an inside day against a basket of major currencies. The Euro, which tends to control the direction of the dollar index, posted a similar more. The expected volatility returned early today when the greenback fell to a three-year low against its counterparts. The spike to the downside was fueled by the Euro’s spike to the upside as investors shook of a setback to Chancellor Angela Merkel’s chances of forging a “grand coalition” in Germany.

The markets looking ahead to the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision, Eurozone CPI final is the main feature in European session. US will release industrial production, NAHB housing index and Fed's Beige Book economic report later today.

 

 

mask Inflation and the GBP in Focus as the USD Steadies from Monday’s Tumble

16/ 01/ 2018

Inflation and the GBP in Focus as the USD Steadies from Monday’s Tumble

Dollar continues to trade as the weakest major currency as another week starts. Over the month, the greenback is trading weakest against Kiwi and Aussie. Meanwhile, Euro is catching up as Germany is closer to reforming the grand coalition. Sterling follows on improving prospects of a favorable Brexit deal. For the moment, it's unclear which is the main driving force behind Dollar's selloff. The fact that other global central banks are catching up on tightening is a factor. Surge in commodity prices is another one. But these two factors are not strong enough to send the Dollar index to three years low. The concerns of China's consideration to move away from Dollar assets could be the more important reason.

Looking ahead, pressure remains on the Dollar, with UK inflation figures in focus this morning, as the markets look for any signs of the BoE needing to rate hikes again this year.

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